Who would have thought that the Jaguars would go 2-1 in their final three games and their two wins would come at Green Bay and Oakland but their loss would be at home to the Texans? What if they had actually beaten Houston at home? They’d be headed to the playoffs right now to play the Colts, a team they beat up there earlier in the year. (Speaking of that, did it seem strange to you that the Colts were competitive for a while against Denver but after the Broncos took the lead they seemed to just sit back and play the game out? By that point, Buffalo had lost, and the Colts could pick their opponent for the first round of the playoffs.

They knew they were going to be at home facing either Jacksonville or Denver. So who would you pick? The team that knows you well from your division and beat you on your home field or somebody you didn’t show much to in the final week of the season? Hmmmmm.) Anyway, the Jaguars finish 9-7, their first winning record wince 1999 and look like a team on the rise.

It would be nice to have the perspective of history to be able to look back and say, yes, 2004 was the year the Jaguars under Jack Del Rio turned it around and became a contender. But we don’t know that yet and only time will tell.

They didn’t suffer that many injuries to key players this year. Both Fred Taylor and Byron Leftwich missed two games and the Jaguars went 2-2 in those four games. They were competitive in all but two of their games (at San Diego and the aforementioned loss to Houston) and could have won, or lost, a couple of the others they played in that were turned by one play. So hopefully that’s what they learned this year. That one play can turn one game that in turn can change a whole season.

The Steelers seem to understand that better than any other team, even beating Buffalo with their backup players in the game. The Jaguars could have turned things with one play against the Texans either time they played them. One play against the Titans at home or one play against the Steelers in the best game of the year on a Sunday night. Del Rio said “When we turn this thing around, it’s going to be with these players. These are our players.” So he thinks the core of winning is on the roster and with a couple of additions through the draft and free agency, they can be among the elite. He could be right, if 2004 is just a stage in the ascent.

If Fred Taylor stays the back that he is and continues to stay healthy. If Jimmy Smith is still a threat down the sideline. If Leftwich continues to improve and if some of those players expected to make big contributions (i.e. Reggie Williams, Daryl Smith) step up and contribute.

Their priority in the draft will clearly be a rush end, if they decide they don’t need a speedy receiver to stretch the field. But at this point it’s easy to subscribe to the “you are what you are” theory and the Jaguars are a 9-7 team that just missed the playoffs. They look good on paper, and look like a contender for the future, but for now, they’re headed home. Nothing more, nothing less.