Law of averages?

“There is that notion out there that we won a few that perhaps we shouldn’t have, but I don’t subscribe to that. Good teams find a way to win.”

Against Tennessee, the Titans were in their best ‘break your rhythm’ mode. It’s not that they’re dominating at any time, but that the entire game looks like a street brawl no matter who has the ball or what situation they’re in. Tennessee can, and likes to play a physical game, and for the most part, the Jaguars responded with equally physical play. But in the 4th quarter, Steve McNair and company made plays, while the Jaguars couldn’t.

On 4th and 1, Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fisher decided to go for it with about 3 ½ minutes to play inside Jaguar territory. A good scrape route into the flat by Tight End Aaron Kinney beat Akin Ayodele to the outside and McNair hit him in stride. With not only a first down but a gain inside the Jaguars five, the Titans scored the go-ahead touchdown on the next play.

No problem, most Jaguars fans, and perhaps some Jaguars players, were thinking. Just over three minutes is an eternity for most football teams. But the Jaguars Jimmy Smith dropped a perfect pass across the middle on first down to kill any momentum that might have been built.. They didn’t make a first down and eventually did get the ball back, but not until Tennessee ran the clock down to 30 seconds with a couple of first downs.

The Titans made the plays, the Jaguars didn’t.

“I hate losing to Tennessee,” a friend of mine snapped as the clock expired. He’s not alone, and especially after this loss. It gives the Jaguars three losses in the division and puts them a game behind Indianapolis in the AFC South. A pretty tough spot to be in after ten games if winning the division title was one of their goals. It also puts a damper on their wild card hopes, because division record is one of the first tie breakers and the Jaguars can do no better than .500 in the division.

“No way in hell we should have lost that game,” Fred Taylor muttered in front of his locker. With 103 yards on 21 carries, the Jaguars seemed to have the right stats to win the game, but a few key drops in the passing game and some strange play calling kept drives from continuing.

“Three of thirteen on third down isn’t going to cut it,” Del Rio lamented. But how they got to third down a lot of times tells a better story. Third and seven, eight or nine limits your options and allows the defense to get up field against the quarterback. There seemed to almost be a “we’ll win it in the end” mentality for the Jaguars, a dangerous habit to get into.

This was one of those games you have to bank for insurance in the future. Instead of 7-3 (and the Titans at 3-7) the Jaguars are now 6-4 with six games to play. Back to back games against Minnesota up there and Pittsburgh at home on a Sunday night will be tough wins to get. Projecting out the rest of the schedule, 9-7 seems to be a realistic record, but with what’s going on in the AFC, it might take a 10-6 mark to get into the playoffs. So the Jaguars will have to win a game or two they’re not supposed to win of their final six if they want to keep playing into January.

But then again, they’ve done that already a few times this season.