SEC REPORT - WEEK 14 Preview
by David Waters
Posted December 02, 2009
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SEC Championship Preview
Florida vs Alabama
Atlanta, GA
Georgia Dome
This is what we have waited all season for. Just one year ago, we never thought we would see another SEC Championship come down to a play-in game for the BCS National Championship. One year later, we have just that. It has been well documented that the winner of this game goes to the National Championship game, so we have the biggest SEc Championship ever for the second year in-a-row.
Alabama's Offense vs Florida's Defense
Plain and simple, Alabama wants to run the ball down Florida's throat. That might be a little easier after the arrest of Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap for DUI. When Florida lines up in it's Joker 3-3-5 defense, Dunlap lines up a nose guard at times. Now more will be put on back-up Justin Tattou and opposite defensive end Jermaine Cunningham.
How healthy will Alabama running back Mark Ingram be? A hip pointer injury suffered against Auburn may slow him down a bit. If that is the case, that means more playing time for freshman Trent Richardson and last week's hero Roy Upchurch. What could help Alabama is that Florida doesn't make a lot of tackles for loss, but some of that is because it is easier to run against the Joker package that has helped Florida hold opponents to just three yards a carry.
With Dunlap out, more also could be put on the Gators' linebackers. Brandon Spikes leads a bunch that is deep and experienced. Spikes maybe asked to play closer to the line since Dunlap is out, but he is so good at baiting opposing quarterbacks into his throwing lane and picking it off. The linebacker corps as a whole has been creating turnovers since the Georgia game.
Speaking of opposing quarterbacks, Greg McElroy has put a nice finish to his season. Get this… McElroy has more passing yards than Tim Tebow. Last week when Auburn shut down the Crimson Tide run game, it was McElroy that led Alabama to the gutsy game-winning drive with smart, quick throws. When 'Bama runs screens is where Florida will miss Dunalp. Dunlap's long frame has disrupted screen passes all season long, and that little nugget can't be overlooked.
McElroy will be facing the nation's best secondary and the nation's best cornerback in Florida's Joe Haden. Haden on Julio Jones will no doubt be the best match-up on the field. Both guys are physical, tough players and each will have one big play on each other. Haden and the other defensive backs will also be asked to blitz, this has wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks by either creating sacks or turnovers. Greg McElroy has yet to see anything like Florida's defensive schemes, and if Alabama can't run the ball, McElroy will have to win the game.
Florida's Offense vs Alabama's Defense
The difference in this game will be Florida quarterback Tim Tebow. The Gators will win or lose because of the play of Tim Tebow. Tebow is the Gators' leading rusher with 796 yards and 13 touchdowns. Tebow seemed to find his groove last week vs FSU… FSU is no Alabama. Alabama's defense is strong up the middle with tackle Terrance Cody and linebacker Rolando McClain. If Florida reverts back to running the dive play over and over again with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey, Cody and McClain can stop that pretty quick and force the Gators to running outside and passing. Florida is strongest when the option attack can come from any direction. Emmanuel Moody could come back for Florida to give another power option besides Tebow.
The wide receivers from Florida will have their hands full with a very talented Alabama secondary.. The Tide's corners are physical, like Florida's, and Florida's receivers have had trouble all season getting open for Tebow. Riley Cooper and tight-end Aaron Hernandez have been the only consistent receivers for Tebow, and that will continue against Alabama. That is why Florida must be able to run the ball. The unsung hero for the Gators could be receiver Deonte Thompson.. He has the ability, but can't seem to put it toothier game after game.
The Florida offensive line has proven they can run block, but with Alabama being the best and most pressuring defense Florida will have faced, it remains to be seen if Florida can consistently give Tebow time to throw. Tebow must also get rid of the ball a lot sooner than he has in the past. If Alabama gets Florida in down-and- long situations, turnovers will be a plenty.
Tebow has yet to be stopped in big games in his career, and it will continue against Alabama.
Special Teams
This is practically equal for both teams. Florida's kicker Caleb Sturgis has been off and on all season, but can boot it from 50+ yards. Alabama's Leigh Tiffin is the best kicker in the SEC. Florida's Chas Henry never allows a punt return, which will work in Florida's favor as Bama's Javier Arenas is every bit as good as Florida's Brandon James in the return game.
Secret of the Game
Red-Zone offense for both teams has been atrocious at times this season. Alabama has had to settle for and SEC most 21 field goals in 48 trips inside the red zone. While Florida has scored only 78.6 percent of the time inside the 20, a lot of those are due to turnovers. Alabama can't win if it settles for field goals, and the Gators must hold on to the ball in order to win.
Prediction
Simple, Tim Tebow will prove to be too much for Alabama once again in the 4th quarter. Alabama will have to play a perfect game, which can happen, as Florida has the experience and better talent overall to take this game.
Florida 27 Alabama 20
Questions or Comments? dwaters@wjxt.com
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