SEC PREDICTIONS
by David Waters
September 01, 2009
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With the season kicking off this week, here are my predictions for the SEC.
SEC EAST
FLORIDA-
It's an obvious choice this season. The returning talent on both sides of the ball ensures Florida won't be much different from last season's team. With Time Tebow leading the offense and Brandon Spikes leading the defense, complacency shouldn't be too much of a problem for a team that is head and shoulders better than everyone in the league.
Replacing Percy Harvin shouldn't pose much of a problem considering the Gators will spread that position out among different players in Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, Brandon James and Aaron Hernandez.
GEORGIA- Joe Cox is a steady veteran who won't make the mistakes Matt Stafford did when he relied on his arm way too much. Cox will be a smarter quarterback and will have to learn how to use the talent around him and try not to make the plays himself. The offensive line and wide receiver A.J. Green will help Cox transition from back up to a consistent quarterback. Someone must emerge at tailback, whether that's Richard Samuel or Caleb King, as Georgia's offense has always been better when they have one main workhorse running back.
The Georgia defense should be better, but must be able to stop the run in the big games. With basically a new offense, the defense must step up and not get into shoot-outs. Jeff Owens returns after missing last season and linebacker Rennie Curran to anchor a great front seven for the Bulldogs.
Mark Richt usually has a better Georgia team when flying under the radar, but he has also never has a schedule like this.
SOUTH CAROLINA- In Steve Spurrier's time at South Carolina he still hasn't found the right quarterback to make the Gamecocks look like his Florida teams. Settling on a talented quarterback maybe all he needed to do. Stephen Garcia will run the "Cock-n-Fire" offense this season and will be the consistent quarterback Spurrier has been looking for. In years past it was the defense that led South Carolina, but that will be more difficult after losing six starters defense from last season. Linebacker Eric Norwood returns to lead the defense that should get better as the year goes on.
The Gamecocks could finish second in the East, but have a history of falling apart the second half of the season.
TENNESSEE- First year coaches in the SEC are a mixed bag. Take last year for example, Houston Nutt leads Ole Miss to a 9-4 season while Bobby Petrino has trouble in Arkansas and goes 5-7. Lane Kiffin will struggle in his first season as the Vols have too many problems left over from last year's squad to make a difference.
Jonathan Crompton has been named starting quarterback and that was after a long battle with Nick Stephens.. Crompton won't have much help as his top three receivers are going to miss some or all of this season. The running game is not strong enough to carry the team.
Defense will be the calling card of this year's Vols team. The unit finished third in the nation in total defense last season but have to deal with the loss of defensive coordinator John Chavis. Safety Eric Berry is one of the best players in the nation and will carry this Volunteers team as far as he can along with new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. The defense will keep them in games, but they still won't be able to score.
VANDERBILT- Nine starters return on both sided of the ball on a Vandy team that made its first bowl game since 1982. It will be tough to match that same success this season. The offense was abysmal last season and still has no proven quarterback or receivers. The offense will be better behind quarterback Larry Smith as he is a great athlete and will make some plays that weren't there last year.
What keeps the Commodores from the basement of the East is the defense. The pass rush will be excellent along with one of the SEC's best linebacker corps. The defense counted on turnovers last season, and if it can match the same production with a better offense the Commodores will be a better team.
Games against Western Carolina, Rice, and Army are the only for sure wins, and it will be the schedule that keeps the Commodores from going to post-season play once again.
KENTUCKY- Consistency will have to better in Lexington this season of the 'Cats want to continue their bowl streak. They would look great and play Alabama tough one week and then struggle against Middle Tennessee State. In Kentucky's seven wins last season none were against bowl teams.
Do-it-all Randall Cobb was amazing at times last season in doing whatever head coach Rich Brooks asked of him. Whether it was play receiver, running back, or quarterback, Cobb was good at all. To get the ball in the open field to him this season he will be used primarily at receiver, but will line up at receiver in the "Wildcat" occasionally. Mike Hartline needs to be a playmaker at quarterback behind a great offensive line.
The defense took a hit when All-American caliber defensive end Jeremy Jarmon was suspended for testing positive for a banned substance. That leaves a defense with no pass proven pass rush and a very young secondary. The athleticism is there at Kentucky, but in the SEC you have to play defense to win, and Kentucky will struggle to stop teams.
SEC West
OLE MISS- Picking the SEC West is very tough, as Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU are all pretty equal teams. When teams are equal the most logical way of picking a team is to go with the team with the best quarterback.
Jevan Snead returns for Houston Nutt's ball club and looks to advance to the SEC Championship for the first since the league came together in 1992. Snead has plenty of talent surrounding him in wide receiver/running back Dexter McCluster and receiver Shay Hodge. The offense is very dynamic, especially behind the genius playcalling of Houston Nutt.
A very deep defensive line returns, anchored by All-SEC defensive end Greg Hardy. If the Rebels can get a little help from the secondary, the defensive results will show the way to Atlanta for the Rebels.
Question is, can the Rebels handle the expectations of being this great team?
LSU- Talent is not the problem at LSU, this year the problem is the schedule. Playing Ole Miss and Alabama every year is a must, but the Tigers draw Florida and Georgia out of the East. The Tigers would represent the West in Atlanta if it wasn't for the schedule.
Former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis comes to Baton Rouge to fix the defensive woes from last season. The defense gave up way too many big plays a season ago and only returns one starter on the defensive line, but the linebackers and defensive backs should improve with some of the best talent in the SEC for a back seven.
Just like last season, tailback Charles Scott will carry the LSU offense. The Tigers settled on quarterback Jordan Jefferson after last year's Chic-Fil-A Bowl, a game that showed what LSU can be if everything is going well. The offensive line will be fine, he has a running back, and playmakers at receiver, so the Tigers will go as far as Jefferson will take them. If the Tigers are struggling again this season, look for true freshman Russell Shepard to get some major playing time in preparation for 2010.
ALABAMA- There will be no sneaking up on opponents this year, unlike last year for the Tide. Nick Saban has brought all the talent he needs to win at Alabama. All that talent will definitely be seen on the defensive side of the ball. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the country and will look to lead the Tide until quarterback Greg McElroy gets his feet under him to lead the offense.
The big potential problem for the Tide is how do they recover from losing left tackle Andre Smith and center Antoine Caldwell. The offense struggled in games without Smith last season, and if they can't find a running game, the offense will struggle. If the Tide find a running game, watch out for McElroy to make more plays than Alabama's all-time leading quarterback John Parker Wilson.
ARKANSAS- This will a lot better season for Bobby Petrino and the Razorbacks. It all starts at quarterback and from all reports, Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett is taking the steps to getting the Razorbacks back to a bowl game. There is plenty of talent around Mallett, especially in running back Michael Smith and tight end D.J. Williams.
Outscoring opponents usually is not the way to win in the SEC, and that is what will hold Arkansas from winning more games this season. The defense was atrocious last season allowing 31 points per game, and the Razorbacks are going to rely on freshman and junior college players to help fill the void.
If the defense does improve, the Razorbacks will upset a few teams they shouldn't.
AUBURN- When Gene Chizik was first hired on The Plains there was a collective groan from the Auburn faithful. As time has passed the fans have calmed down and look at what Chizik is doing and it seems to be not that bad. Auburn still has a SEC caliber defense and will carry this team for a majority of games.
The problem will be the same as last year's squad. The Tigers simply do not have the right players to run a spread offense. Chris Todd was finally named starting quarterback over Kodi Burns, who was moved to wide receiver. Todd kind of surprised everyone in being named starting quarterback and that leads many to believe the Tigers just have no talent at he spot. The offense will be better than last though, as they will embrace Gus Malzahn's version of the spread that made Tulsa one of the best offenses in the nation.
MISSISSIPPI ST.- Tim Tebow and Alex Smith were products of Urban Meyer and new Bulldogs' head coach Dan Mullen's spread attack. There in lies the problem for Mullen and this season's Bulldog team, he has no Tebow or Smith… not even close. Mullen still hasn't even decided on a number one quarterback between Tyson Lee and Chris Relf heading into week one. The offense might not be horrible if the offense is built around running back Anthony Dixon.
As with a lot of SEC teams, the defense will formidable for the Bulldogs, but look for the offense to continue to put the defense in bad situations until it figures the spread offense out.
WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS- Confidence on a scale of 10
South Carolina at N.C. State (Thursday) - Winner: South Carolina
- Steve Spurrier is undefeated in season opening games at South Carolina. The defense will hold N.C. State quarterback Russel Wilson in check from making too many plays.
- South Carolina 20 N.C. State 17
- Confidence: 6
Alabama vs Virginia Tech (Atlanta) - Winner: Alabama
- This will be a defensive fest kind of game. Bama quarterback Greg McElroy has Julio Jones to help him make plays, while Hokies' quarterback Tyrod Taylor is missing the top running back and has no proven receivers to help make plays.
- Alabama 24 Virginia Tech 10
- Confidence: 8
Missouri St. at Arkansas - Winner: Arkansas
- When a FBS school plays a FCS school, they just hope not to get anyone injured. The Razorbacks won't show too much in getting ready for a game against Georgia two weekd later.. It will be nice to see what Ryan Mallett brings to the table.
- Arkansas 45 Missouri St. 10
- Confidence: 10
Louisiana Tech at Auburn - Winner: Auburn
- This will be one of the only games the offense of Auburn will look better than it really is. Look to see if the Tigers can get a consistent passing game going, and they will against the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech.
- Auburn 37 Louisiana Tech 13
- Confidence: 10
Charleston Southern at Florida - Winner: Florida
- In a game that will be over by halftime, John Brantley will get more snaps than Tim Tebow and throw to a bunch of young unproven receivers. Look for a lot of youngsters on defense to play as well.
- Florida 66 Charleston Southern 0
- Confidence: 10
Georgia at Oklahoma St. - Winner: Oklahoma St.
- If this game was in Athens, the Dawgs would have the edge. Going to Stillwater and having to deal with Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter will be problematic for the UGA defense. The defense had trouble stopping similar offenses in the past. The Georgia offense doesn't have the experience to get into a shoot-out on the road.
- Oklahoma St. 30 Georgia 20
- Confidence: 7
LSU at Washington - Winner: LSU
- The road trip out west and starting at 10 PM will be a weird feeling for the Tigers. The raw power of the LSU running game and defense will prove to be too much for Steve Sarkisian's debut in Washington.
- LSU 40 Washington 13
- Confidence: 9
Jackson St. at Mississippi St. - Winner: Mississippi St.
- The Bulldog offense will be built around running back Anthony Dixon, but head coach Dan Mullen will want to get his young receivers some work so he can decide on a quarterback for the rest of the season.
- Mississippi St. 37 Jackson St. 3
- Confidence: 10
Western Kentucky at Tennessee - Winner: Tennessee
- Volunteers' head coach Lane Kiffin will want to come out with a bang in his first game, plus he needs to see what quarterback Jonathan Crompton brings to the table. The offense wants to get back to get back to pounding the ball and it will in this game against an inferior opponent.
- Tennessee 42 Western Kentucky 10
- Confidence: 10
Western Carolina at Vanderbilt - Winner: Vanderbilt
- Another game in which a team is going to figure out what they have a quarterback. This is an early glimpse if Vanderbilt is continuing to get better or if they are going back towards the bottom of the SEC.
- Vanderbilt 34 Western Carolina 10
- Confidence: 10
Kentucky vs Miami (OH) (Cincinnati) - Winner: Kentucky
- It will be a great atmosphere as Kentucky travels to Cincinnati. This will be a close game as the Wildcats will be working out the kinks in the backfield with quarterback Mike Hartline and running back Alfonso Smith. Randall Cobb will make a couple of plays out of the Wildcat to lead the 'Cats to victory.
- Kentucky 27 Miami (OH) 17
- Confidence: 8
Ole Miss at Memphis (Sunday) - Winner: Ole Miss
- Ole Miss just simply has too much talent for the Memphis Tigers. Opening on the road is tough, but Ole Miss will have little trouble. The Tigers from Memphis only return four starters on offense and the Ole Miss defense will just concentrate on the Tigers' running game and wear them down.
- Ole Miss 48 Memphis 13
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